2008 Election Outcome Modeling

Personal Electability Index for Presidential Contenders

Summary

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
John McCain: PEI = 26
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
John Edwards: PEI = 13
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:  15    4   15  2   1    0     9   11   0   2 16   0

Clinton: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 - 4)] = 23 PEI

John Edwards: PEI = 13

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    3    4    4   6   4     1    2     3   1   0   0   0

Edwards: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 - 3)] = 13

Barack Obama: PEI = 28

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:  10    6   11  9   7     1    2     5   4   1   0   4

Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 - 4)] = 28

Summary for Democratic Contenders

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
John Edwards: PEI = 13

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   27   3    9   3   0    0     0   10   0   0 12   0

 Giuliani: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1) = (27 - 12)] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (10 - 4)] = 19 PEI

Mike Huckabee: PEI = [22]

 Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   11    5    5   8   4     0    3    2   0   0   0   4

Huckabee: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 8] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 2] = 22

John McCain: PEI = 26

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:  10   16   5  11  0     0     0    0   0   0   0  0

McCain: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 26

Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    7    4    5   2   4     0    3    12  1   0  4    4

Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 - 4)] = 6

Fred Thompson: PEI = 12

 Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:     6    1    4    3   2    0    0     4   2   1   4   0

Thompson: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 - 4)] = 8

Summary for Republican Contenders

John McCain: PEI = 26
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

2004 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   11    5    4   16  4     0     0    2   0   0   0   4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 - 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2)] = 30

John Kerry: PEI = 9

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    6    6     7   0   3     0     3     5   2   3   0   0

Kerry: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 3] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 - 4)] = 9

2000 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   11    5    4   16  4     0     0    2   0   0   0   4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 - 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2)] = 31

Al Gore: PEI = –17

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    8    2     3   1   4     1     3   22  5  11 12  0

Gore: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 3] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 11] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (22 - 4)] = –17

Related concept: Leadership Electability Index